CBRE – Macro Outlook, 2024

CBRE's Macro Outlook for 2024 is optimistic, with resilient growth and falling rates creating a supportive environment for real asset investments. The key calls include expectations of central banks cutting policy rates in major markets, except for China and Japan where monetary policy is expected to modestly tighten. Despite weak global trade impacting manufacturing export countries like China, Korea, and Germany, service sector economies are expected to benefit from tight labor markets and resilient consumer confidence. The main risks to these forecasts include geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, which could elevate inflation and slow policy rate cuts. Although modest revisions have been made to GDP growth forecasts, emerging Asian economies are still expected to outperform developed markets. Overall, while no major market is expected to experience a recession, growth may be below trend in some countries due to factors like adjustments to new trading arrangements and shifts in economic focus.