CEO – The CEO Macro Briefing Book, 2024

In 2024, the US economy is expected to slow down, but only modestly, following a strong GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023. The economy is showing resilience in the face of potential slowdowns, with recent easing of financial conditions possibly keeping it running hot. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to start cutting rates in May, with market expectations pointing towards a total of 4 cuts this year. Consumer spending is expected to remain healthy due to a tight labor market and rising incomes, while easier financing conditions are predicted by year-end. Globally, 2024 is a significant electoral year, with over 60 countries holding elections. In the US, major fiscal policy changes will require a favorable outcome in both the House and Senate, with predictions favoring the Democrats to win the House and a close race for the Senate. Overall, the economy seems to be on track for a soft landing, but uncertainties remain in the political landscape.