CSET – Decoupling in Strategic Technologies, Dec 2024

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China have led to discussions in Washington about the concept of "decoupling," which involves using public policy tools to sever the economic ties between the two nations. This process has already begun with various steps taken to reshape the economic relationship. Decoupling includes tactics to protect certain U.S. industries, reduce reliance on China for important products, and enhance national security by limiting potential threats. This issue brief focuses on the effectiveness of using export controls and trade policies to hinder a rival from catching up in crucial technologies. By examining past efforts in satellite technology, the brief aims to provide insights into the efficacy of decoupling in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. With the ongoing debates around decoupling, the paper aims to answer two key questions: Firstly, does history support the idea that decoupling can effectively impede a rival's progress in emerging technologies? And secondly, what factors influence the success of decoupling policies in achieving this goal? Through analyzing past experiences in satellite technology, the brief seeks to offer valuable insights for policymakers considering similar strategies in current strategic technologies such as artificial intelligence.