ECB – Economic Bulletin Issue, 2024

The global economy has shown signs of improvement, with data indicating a gradual strengthening since the start of the year. The outlook for global growth, according to Eurosystem projections, remains relatively stable, with a slight decrease projected for this year. Global trade is expected to recover in line with global activity, although remaining below historical trend levels. Inflation is projected to gradually decline over the forecast period. While there is positive momentum in global activity, challenges like reduced savings in advanced economies and weak domestic demand in China persist. Labour markets in key advanced economies are cooling, and consumer spending remains subdued. Global GDP growth has slowed slightly, with growth estimated at 0.8% in the first quarter of 2024. Despite positive signals from both survey and hard data, headwinds to growth include weakened global consumer spending and moderated wage growth.