Economist - China Outlook 2023 January

The report provides a forecast for China's economy in 2023. It predicts that China's real GDP growth will pick up to 5.2% due to a recovery in domestic demand, which will help to offset a dim outlook for exports. The recovery of private consumption will be milder due to the lack of household-focused stimulus. To boost market sentiment and consumer confidence, the government will suspend economically disruptive policies and announce expansionary fiscal measures. The report also states that the Chinese government will remodel the heavily-indebted property sector instead of providing a full-blown stimulus, which will lower the risk of a "hard landing," but also result in a slower and stronger recovery. The report concludes that the property sector will play a diminished role in driving China's economic growth and that the state will play a bigger role in filling the vacuum left by private players. The report also highlights the persistent shortfalls in the public finances, which require sustainable solutions.