EIU - Global Economic Outlook 2023

The report file provides a global economic outlook for the year 2023. The text states that the situation will persist throughout 2023 and beyond, as the war in Ukraine is expected to become a protracted conflict with no clear resolution. The economic impact of the war is being felt especially strongly in Germany and central Europe, where energy-intensive industries will struggle to remain competitive. In the US, annual growth is expected to slow sharply this year, to only 1%, as the pace of consumer spending becomes unsustainable in the face of high inflation and a steep rise in interest rates. In China, the initial rebound in consumer activity after the lifting of the government’s zero-covid policy has been strong, but the recovery has fallen short of expectations due to various sources of stress. The report also mentions that global commodity prices are expected to continue easing from their 2022 peaks this year, but to remain well above pre-2021 levels. The text warns of several potential threats that could lead to a global recession this year or next, including an escalation of the war in Ukraine, social unrest arising from high inflation, tensions around Taiwan, financial contagion, and extreme weather events. Overall, the global economic outlook for 2023 is characterized by low growth amid persistent threats.