Erste Group – CEE Macro Outlook, Mar 2025

The report analyzes the macroeconomic outlook for Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2025.

In most countries in the region, GDP estimates for Q4 2024 met or exceeded expectations, except for Romania and Serbia. In 2024, Croatia and Serbia showed the strongest growth, around 4%, while Hungary and Romania lagged behind. GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 in all CEE countries except Croatia and Slovakia. The average growth in the region is expected to be 0.6 percentage points higher in 2025 (2.6% vs. 2.0% in 2024). Fiscal consolidation and geopolitical events may negatively impact economic prospects. The main risks to the growth forecast are related to tariffs and declining consumer confidence.