European Commission – European Economic Forecast, Winter 2024

The European economy struggled throughout 2023, narrowly avoiding a recession, with weak consumption, investment, and external demand. High inflation and tight monetary policy also impacted growth. Global trade was disappointing, hindering economic activity. However, the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, with falling energy prices and looser financial conditions. Real wage increases may boost consumption, and demand from trading partners is projected to increase. Despite a weak start to 2024, the European Commission's Winter Economic Forecast revises growth downward for both the EU and the euro area in 2023 and 2024, with inflation expected to slow down.