EY – European Economic Outlook, May 2025

The impact of trade tariffs on Europe's economy is the main theme.

Key findings include that US tariffs have a limited impact on Europe's economy, which shows moderate growth. Poland and Spain lead in growth rates, while Germany lags. The introduction of US tariffs on goods from all countries, including additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, increases economic uncertainty. It is expected that tariffs will reduce EU GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points next year. The long-term negative effects of tariffs are likely to diminish. The slowdown in the global economy and rising uncertainty may lead to lower commodity prices, especially oil.