Fidenlity – International Outlook, 2024

The report by Fidelity - International Outlook, 2024 by Fidelity emphasizes the importance of flexibility and adaptability in investing. The author acknowledges that predicting the future is difficult and instead advocates for considering different scenarios and being prepared to react to changing facts. The intro highlights that the global economy is entering a phase of dramatic change, transitioning from low inflation and declining interest rates to something different. This shift will bring about greater economic volatility and higher risk premiums for holding assets. Fidelity presents four macroeconomic scenarios for developed markets in 2024, urging investors to keep them in mind as the year unfolds. Additionally, the intro mentions that there will be a significant number of elections worldwide in 2024, coinciding with a renewed interest in fiscal policy. The desire for government intervention and high budget deficits may lead to markets demanding a higher price for this spending. The intro also discusses the United States' election, noting that trends such as reshoring and declining Chinese demand for US goods may impact the country's status as a safe haven and the issuer of the world's reserve currency. The Federal Reserve may reconsider monetary policies like quantitative tightening. Furthermore, the intro mentions that China's economic cycle has implications for other Asian economies, and Japan is adjusting to the end of one era and the beginning of another. Finally, the intro highlights the efforts towards building a more sustainable world and the importance of policymakers pushing companies and investors towards a transition economy. Engaging with regulators and industry groups will continue to be vital in 2024. Overall, the intro emphasizes the need for investors to remain nimble and adaptable in navigating the uncertainties and changes that will occur in 2024.