Fitch Ratings – Global Economic Outlook, Mar 2024

Fitch Ratings has increased its 2024 global GDP growth forecast to 2.4%, with improved near-term growth prospects. The US forecast has been raised to 2.1%, while China's has been slightly decreased to 4.5%. Emerging markets excluding China are expected to grow by 3.2%. The eurozone is still struggling, with Germany's recession weighing on the region. Deflationary pressures are rising in China due to a property collapse. Inflation is persisting in the US and Europe, leading to expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ECB. The Fed is holding out for more evidence of disinflation progress before cutting rates, while the ECB is expected to cut rates in June. Overall, global growth is expected to edge up to 2.5% in 2025, with the eurozone recovering and US growth slowing.