Goldman Sachs – Tariff-Induced Recession Risk, Apr 2025

The main theme of the report is the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy on the US and global economy, as well as the risks associated with a potential recession induced by these tariffs.

Key findings include: Paul Krugman believes that uncertainty could lead to a recession, and any policy changes could exacerbate this uncertainty. Jan Hatzius suggests that the risk of recession is heightened, but reversing tariff policy could stabilize the situation in the short term. Oren Cass argues that tariff policy does not necessarily have to lead to a recession and could improve US economic performance.