IMF – World Economic Outlook, Jan 2024

The IMF's World Economic Outlook for January 2024 predicts that global growth will reach 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025. This is slightly higher than previous projections due to the resilience of the United States and several emerging market economies, as well as fiscal support in China. However, these forecasts are below the historical average due to factors such as high inflation rates, reduced fiscal support, and low productivity growth. Inflation is also expected to decrease faster than anticipated, largely due to the easing of supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policies. Global headline inflation is projected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast being revised downward. The risk of a hard landing for the global economy has decreased as disinflation and steady growth continue. The risks to global growth are considered balanced, with the potential for further financial easing, but also the possibility of geopolitical shocks impacting commodity prices and causing tighter monetary conditions. Policymakers are advised to focus on managing inflation and adjusting monetary policies accordingly. They are also encouraged to implement fiscal consolidation measures to rebuild budgetary capacity, address public debt issues, and promote productivity growth. Furthermore, efficient multilateral coordination is deemed necessary to address debt resolution, climate change, and other global challenges.