IMF – World Economic Outlook, October 2023

The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is slow and uneven. Despite some economic resilience earlier in the year, with a rebound in economic activity and a reduction in inflation, there is still a long way to go. Economic activity has not yet reached its pre-pandemic levels, especially in emerging market and developing economies, and there are growing disparities among regions. Multiple factors are hindering the recovery, including the long-term consequences of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and increasing fragmentation in the global economy. Other factors include the tightening of monetary policy to curb inflation, the withdrawal of fiscal support due to high debt, and extreme weather events. The IMF forecasts that global growth will slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024. These projections are below the historical average and have been revised downward for 2024. Advanced economies are expected to experience a slowdown, with the US showing stronger-than-expected growth but the euro area falling short of expectations. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have modestly declining growth, primarily due to the property sector crisis in China. Overall, the outlook for global growth over the medium term is weak, and there are limited prospects for countries to catch up to higher living standards. Global inflation is expected to decrease steadily, but the forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have been revised upward, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.