ING – Global Outlook, 2024

The report by ING – Global Outlook, 2024 suggests that there is no magic solution to brighten the global economy. The authors predict that any positive changes in the global economy will likely occur in the second half of 2024. They also believe that attempts by central banks, governments, or unexpected factors are unlikely to produce a grand, crowd-pleasing result. The authors acknowledge that some people might view 2023 as better than expected, particularly due to the resilience of the US economy and the avoidance of a severe energy crisis in Europe. However, others may see a stuttering Chinese economy, stagnation in Europe, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Looking ahead to 2024, the authors suggest that there will not be a strong rebound in the global economy. Instead, trends from this year in China and Europe will likely continue, and the US economy will experience some form of landing, whether soft or hard. The delayed impact of monetary policy tightening and a lack of significant fiscal stimulus are cited as reasons for this. Specifically, in China, the authors predict a further loss of growth momentum and ongoing correction in the real estate and construction sector. In the US and Europe, derisking will put more pressure on Chinese growth. The authors expect a similar landing in Europe, as the economy has not been performing well and will continue to stagnate. Inflation is also expected to decrease due to the loss of growth momentum and the impact of energy prices. The authors express astonishment at Germany's fiscal woes and suggest that the country's self-inflicted economic and political troubles could lead Europe into recession. They note that the rest of Europe will not benefit as it did in the past when Germany faced economic challenges. Despite the gloomy outlook, the authors see hope in the potential for central banks to have more room to cut rates due to disinflation and the loss of economic momentum. They believe this could improve the outlook and mood in the second half of 2024. The authors also mention the possibility of external events, such as the end of wars in Ukraine and Gaza, that could positively impact the global economy. In conclusion, the authors state that there is no magic wand to make the world brighter economically, and they express disappointment in this fact.