Julius Bar – Secular Outlook, 2024

Every year in October, Julius Baer holds a two-day seminar called the Secular Outlook, where their experts and external guests analyze global economic and capital market trends. This seminar is important for Julius Baer's investment process as it allows them to take a step back from recent events and examine the bigger picture. They believe it is crucial for long-term investors to understand the structural forces at play in the economy and adjust their portfolios accordingly. One significant trend they have identified is the transition from neoliberalism to state-sponsored capitalism, which they first introduced in 2019. This transition has been accelerated by the return of geopolitics, leading to a multipolar world where countries are reshoring their strategic activities for national security reasons. This shift is being facilitated by active fiscal and industrial policies. They predict that this fiscal dominance will lead to a faster-than-expected normalization of interest rates, which they see as a positive development in a capitalist system that can create opportunities. Additionally, they believe we may be on the brink of an innovation super cycle driven by the convergence of various technologies, including generative artificial intelligence. This could result in significant productivity gains throughout the decade. However, they note that China is currently facing challenges due to a balance sheet recession and adverse demographic and economic developments. Overall, Julius Bar's Secular Outlook seminar provides valuable insights for investors and highlights the importance of understanding global trends and adapting investment strategies accordingly.