Kearney – Global Economic Outlook, 2024-2028

The global economy is showing signs of stabilization post-pandemic, with growth levels below pre-pandemic averages. Key uncertainties could impact the economic outlook, with geopolitical risk and technological disruption playing crucial roles. Scenario analysis predicts global economic output to average 2.7 percent growth from 2024-2028, but this could rise to 4.0 percent with improved geopolitical stability and AI productivity gains, or drop to 1.1 percent due to geopolitical conflicts disrupting supply chains. Inflation rates are expected to decrease, with advanced and emerging markets projecting average rates of 2.0 and 4.0 percent respectively. India and China are set to lead Asia and Australasia in output growth, while the Middle East and Africa also show strong growth potential. India remains the fastest-growing large economy, followed by the United States. China, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are also expected to see steady growth. The United States is predicted to be the fastest-growing G7 economy, supported by various economic factors.