Lazard – Global Outlook, 2024

The report summarizes the key events and trends in the global economy in 2023 and provides an outlook for 2024. In 2023, there was high inflation and monetary policy tightening, strong consumer spending in the US, weak growth in China due to a real estate and consumer confidence crisis, sluggishness in the Eurozone due to rate hikes and export weakness, stagflation in the UK, geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East, and evidence of climate change. The outlook for 2024 is expected to be different from 2023. Inflation is projected to fall to 2%, and rate hikes may be replaced by cuts. The US is aiming for a "soft landing" to avoid a recession. China's sentiment is improving despite the housing market overhang. The Eurozone and UK are at risk of recession due to sticky inflation. Japan is expected to maintain negative interest rates and continue growing above potential. The conflict in Ukraine and tensions between China and the West are expected to persist. The US elections will have a significant impact on the geopolitical trajectory. Overall, the global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, and there is still a risk of recession despite the recent monetary policy tightening. The US and China remain the primary drivers of the global economy, and their respective growth performances will have a significant impact. Geopolitical risks are high, and decision-making for executives and investors is no longer based on a calm geopolitical backdrop.