Mastercard – Economic Outlook, 2026

This report analyzes the global economic outlook for 2026, focusing on how economies adapt to policy changes, tariffs, and technological advancements, particularly AI.

Global real GDP growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.2% in 2025. Growth is projected to be moderately stronger in the US, slower in the Chinese Mainland and Latin America, with Europe showing a mixed outlook influenced by fiscal policy. Inflation is expected to ease to 3.4% in 2026 from 3.9% in 2025, affected by tariffs, commodity prices, currency shifts, and changes in Chinese imports. Consumers will prioritize tech-enabled, value-conscious spending, focusing on meaningful experiences like travel and live events. Risks include supply chain adaptations and uneven benefits from technological advancements favoring advanced economies and digitally ready sectors.