McKinsey – Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade: 2026 Update

This report analyzes the evolving landscape of global trade in 2026, focusing on the impact of geopolitics, tariffs, artificial intelligence, and other factors reshaping trade flows.

Key findings include that trade in 2025 did not decline despite negative forecasts, with US imports and Chinese exports reaching new highs. Southeast Asia increased its role in global manufacturing, India made gains in selected sectors, and Brazil expanded commodity exports to China. Overall, global trade grew faster than the global economy, with detailed regional analyses covering the US, China, EU, and emerging economies.