MERICS - China Forecast 2023

The MERICS China Forecast 2023 shows that China's future is uncertain due to the unbridled power of Xi Jinping, economic and social pressures, and unpredictable policies. Covid-19, geopolitical environment, and a potential global recession are the top three challenges facing the country in the upcoming year. The experts surveyed believe that Covid-19 measures, economic stress, and social inequality are the most likely triggers of renewed public dissent. China's leadership is expected to defer to Xi's vision and ideology, with no room for collective policy consultation or political pragmatism. The most important issue for the CCP is upholding public order and containing protests. A more centralized power structure and heightened economic and social risks suggest the possibility of a "pressure cooker" scenario for China, where interrelated risks in the areas of public health, geopolitics, and economics raise the likelihood of economic stress, leading to protests met by a regime with an unconstrained Xi at its pinnacle.