MetLife – Global Outlook 2025, Oct 2024

MetLife's "Global Outlook 2025" report, published in October 2024, provides a comprehensive analysis of anticipated global economic trends for 2025. The report forecasts moderate global growth, with a notable slowdown in the manufacturing sector due to decreased production, demand, and exports. It highlights the normalization of inflation rates across major economies, contingent on the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected rate-cutting cycle. The study also examines the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, on commodity prices and transportation costs. Additionally, it discusses the anticipated rate-cutting paths of central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and People's Bank of China, while noting the Bank of Japan's move towards policy normalization. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the neutral rate of interest and the timing of central banks' cessation of rate cuts.