OECD – Economic Outlook, Jun 2025

The global economic outlook for 2025 is increasingly challenging due to barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, weaker confidence, and policy uncertainty.

This is expected to have a marked adverse effect on growth prospects, with global GDP projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are expected to see the most significant slowdown, while China and other economies may have smaller adjustments. Global trade growth is likely to slow, and business investment may be held back by uncertainty. While fiscal easing in some economies could provide support, policy is expected to be mildly restrictive in many countries. Inflation is projected to moderate in G20 economies, except for the United States where it may rise to just under 4%. However, there are substantial risks to these projections, including further increases in trade barriers, cautious behavior by consumers and firms, and financial stability risks. On the upside, a reversal of trade barriers and easing of regulatory burdens could improve growth prospects and confidence.