OECD - Economic Outlook, March 2023

The latest OECD Economic Outlook report indicates that global growth in 2022 was slower than expected due to the impact of the Ukraine war, the cost-of-living crisis, and the slowdown in China. While positive signs such as the reopening of China and falling food and energy prices have emerged, global growth is projected to remain at below trend rates in 2023 and 2024 due to the continuing effects of policy tightening. Annual GDP growth is expected to slow in the US and Eurozone, while growth in China is projected to rebound. Headline inflation is declining but core inflation remains elevated, and inflationary pressures are likely to persist until the latter half of 2024 in most countries. While risks have become somewhat better balanced, uncertainty about the war in Ukraine and its broader consequences remains a key concern. Therefore, monetary policy needs to remain restrictive until there are clear signs that inflationary pressures are lowered durably. The report also suggests the need for more focused fiscal support to mitigate the impact of high food and energy prices, as well as structural reform efforts to revive productivity growth and alleviate supply constraints. Enhanced international cooperation is also necessary to address food and energy insecurity, low-income countries' debt servicing, and carbon mitigation efforts.