OECD – Economic Outlook, May 2024

The global economic outlook is showing signs of improvement with modest growth, lower inflation, and rising private sector confidence. Unemployment rates are low, real incomes are increasing, and trade growth is positive. However, there are disparities between countries, with softer outcomes in Europe and low-income countries, but strong growth in the United States and emerging-market economies. Global GDP growth is projected to be 3.1% in 2024, with a slight increase to 3.2% in 2025. Most economies are expected to maintain restrictive macroeconomic policies, with exceptions like China providing additional fiscal support. Risks to the outlook include geopolitical tensions, slow reductions in inflation, and potential financial vulnerabilities. On the upside, demand growth could surpass expectations, especially in advanced economies, leading to faster inflation reduction. Overall, while risks remain, the global economic outlook is gradually improving.