OECD – Economic Outlook, Sep 2025

The OECD Economic Outlook for September 2025 highlights that global growth was stronger than expected in the first half of the year, particularly in emerging-market economies.

Factors such as front-loading ahead of higher tariffs and strong AI-related investments in the US contributed to this resilience. However, the effects of increasing tariffs are starting to be felt, with signs of softening in labour markets and rising consumer prices. The report projects a decrease in global GDP growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2026, due to factors like higher tariff rates and policy uncertainty dampening investment and trade. Inflation is expected to decline in most G20 economies, with risks to the economic outlook including further tariff increases and financial instability related to volatile crypto-asset valuations. To navigate these uncertain times, countries are encouraged to cooperate within the global trading system, central banks need to monitor risks to price stability, and fiscal discipline is crucial to maintain debt sustainability and room for future shocks. Efforts to enhance structural reforms are also emphasized for long-term improvements in living standards and benefits from new technologies like artificial intelligence.