Office for Budget Responsibility – Economic and Fiscal Outlook, Oct 2024

The Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) "Economic and Fiscal Outlook" for October 2024 provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK's economic performance and public finances, incorporating the latest data and government policies up to the October 2024 Budget. The report forecasts that government borrowing will increase from £122 billion in 2023/24 to £127 billion in 2024/25, before gradually declining to £71 billion by 2029/30. GDP growth is projected to accelerate from 1.1% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, then moderate to around 1.5% annually from 2027 to 2029. The OBR also anticipates that the national debt will rise to 98.4% of GDP by the end of 2024/25, with a slight decrease to approximately 97% in subsequent years. Additionally, the report highlights that the Chancellor's £40 billion tax increase is expected to hinder future economic growth and elevate inflation and mortgage rates. The OBR emphasizes the need for balanced fiscal policies to ensure sustainable economic growth and financial stability.