OIES – Fossil Fuel Shocks and European Electricity Prices Since the 1970s: What Can We Learn?

This report analyzes the relationship between fossil fuel market shocks and European electricity prices over the past five decades.

It examines how different power system configurations and generation mixes have influenced price dynamics, highlighting the persistent structural dependency of electricity prices on upstream fossil fuel markets regardless of market structure or dominant generation technology. The report discusses the impact of historical shocks, market liberalisation, geopolitical disruptions, and energy transitions on electricity pricing and stresses the need for future electricity systems to focus on systemic resilience and diversification beyond renewable deployment and efficiency.