OIES – Reflections on COP30 – Fighting to Keep the Multilateral Process Alive

This report analyzes the outcomes and challenges of COP30, held in Belem, Brazil.

It highlights the difficulties in achieving unanimous agreement on contentious issues like the future of fossil fuels and notes a shift in climate diplomacy with separate forums for coalitions willing to act. The report questions the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement process, pointing out that only one third of parties submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions by the deadline. It projects a global temperature rise of 2.3-2.5°C this century, with an overshoot of the 1.5°C target seen as inevitable. Fossil fuels remain a contentious issue with no agreement reached, and a parallel process outside COP is planned to address this. Finance for climate action remains a persistent challenge, especially for developing countries.