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RAND – How Artificial General Intelligence Could Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations

Summary

The document explores eight scenarios of long-term geopolitical consequences associated with the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI).

It examines how the centralization or decentralization of AGI development and ownership could lead to favorable or unfavorable geopolitical outcomes for the United States. Various assumptions are also analyzed to help policymakers understand and prepare for possible futures.

Region: Global 
Published: September 2025 
Author(s): RAND 
Language: English 
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