Shell – The 2026 Energy Security Scenarios: Challenges to the Transition

This report explores future energy security scenarios up to the year 2026, focusing on challenges to the energy transition amid geopolitical, technological, and societal changes.

It presents three distinct energy security scenarios, discusses the evolving energy mix, carbon management strategies, and the implications of global warming nearing 1.5°C. The report highlights the complexity of global energy demand, the role of critical minerals, the rise of renewables, and the integration of intermittent energy sources. It also addresses climate change politics, national responses, and the potential for a nuclear renaissance, reflecting a world facing a 'polycrisis' with unresolved conflicts, trade tensions, and AI-driven transformations influencing the energy transition.