Silicon Valley Bank – Quarterly Economic Report, 2Q 2025

The main theme of the report concerns economic and market factors affecting global markets and business health.

Key findings include the entry of a new administration into the White House in the first quarter of 2025, opening up a wider range of outcomes for the global economy and financial markets. Uncertainty around tariffs has become a key factor for inflation and economic growth expectations. The unemployment rate in March was 4.2%, and uncertainty in economic and trade policy could impact the labor market in the coming months. Consumer confidence indicators declined following the introduction of tariffs and reductions in federal spending. The US GDP grew by 2.4% annually in the fourth quarter of 2024. US bond markets performed positively in the first quarter of 2025 despite volatility. US stocks faced sharp corrections due to uncertainty in monetary policy and tariff concerns. Labor market conditions remain stable, with job growth and a steady unemployment rate. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained interest rates at their meetings in January and March 2025. Inflation in 2025 is moderate, with core personal consumption expenditures rising by 2.8% annually.