UNCTAD – Global Trade, Dec 2023

The global economic forecast shows steady growth, but it remains below historical averages. There are significant disparities in economic outlooks among countries and regions, which will affect trade patterns. Persistently high interest rates in several economies are hindering economic activity, and the latest data suggests a subdued outlook for industrial output in China and the United States. Commodity markets are also facing uncertainty due to regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions. The increasing importance of securing critical minerals for the energy transition will further contribute to market volatility in these commodities. The response of supply chains to trade policy shifts and geopolitical tensions is impacting global trade, particularly in the linkages between China and the United States. Companies in East Asian economies and Mexico have had opportunities to become more integrated into these supply chains. The use of industrial policy and efforts to meet climate commitments are driving changes in trade policies, including an increase in subsidies and trade restrictive measures. These inward-looking policies are expected to impede international trade growth. Container shipping is currently experiencing low demand, while there is increasing demand for raw materials, as indicated by the positive trend in the Baltic Dry Index.