UNCTAD - Global Trade, June 2023

The Global Trade Update report provides an overview of global trade trends and developments in the first half of 2023. Despite some challenges and uncertainties, global trade growth has returned, with services trade outperforming goods trade. The energy sector, agri-food products, apparel, chemicals, and road vehicles have experienced trade increases, while trade declined in the office and communication equipment, and in the transport sectors. Merchandise trade growth has been mixed among the major economies during the last four quarters, and trade trends in Q1 2023 for the major economies have been more subdued, and in many cases negative. Negative factors impacting international trade include geopolitical factors, a weakening global economy, potential rise in trade restrictive measures, slowing industrial output, inflation, commodity prices, interest rates, and concerns of debt sustainability. However, there are some positive trends, such as the growth of digital trade and the increasing importance of services trade. Friend-shoring, or the trend of companies moving operations closer to their customers, is impacting trade growth. The latter half of 2023 is projected to see continued trade growth, but at a slower pace than in the first half of the year. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of global trade and the factors that are shaping it.