Vanguard – Economic and Market Outlook, 2024

Vanguard's Economic and Market Outlook for 2024 predicts 2.0% economic growth, with a focus on labour supply and productivity gains supporting this growth. Core inflation is expected to be 2.9% by year-end, with persistent elevated wage growth contributing to heightened services inflation. The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates, with a projected range of 5.25-5.50% for monetary policy. The unemployment rate is anticipated to be 4.0%, with job growth across industries. Vanguard Senior Economist Adam Schickling is monitoring cyclical employment and the economy's potential for continued growth. Noncyclical employment in sectors like government, health care, and education has been driving job creation, while cyclical employment continues to grow, indicating a strong labour market and sustained economic expansion. These figures are Vanguard's forecasts for the end of 2024, with growth and inflation compared to 2023 and monetary policy and unemployment figures provided as absolutes.