Visa – US Regional Economic Outlook, 4Q 2023

According to Visa's analysis of the latest economic data, all regions of the U.S. likely saw economic and job growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by resilient consumer demand and better-than-expected export growth. Despite the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy to control inflation, a soft landing is forecasted for the U.S. economy in 2024. However, high interest rates may limit business fixed investment in the first half of the year, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and potential job losses. The West is expected to see the largest job losses due to a pullback in the residential sector and transportation and warehousing, while the Northeast may see job gains in healthcare and education sectors. The Midwest may experience layoffs in the manufacturing sector, while the South is likely to avoid job losses due to strong business investment and a higher share of government employment. Overall, the government sector is expected to continue adding jobs and help limit contractions in GDP and consumer spending in the South.