WorldBank – Global Economic Prospects, 2024

The WorldBank's Global Economic Prospects report for 2024 predicts a further slowdown in global growth due to factors such as tight monetary policies, restrictive financial conditions, and weak global trade and investment. The report highlights several downside risks to the global economy, including the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, financial stress caused by high debt and borrowing costs, persistent inflation, weaker-than-expected growth in China, trade fragmentation, and climate-related disasters. Policymakers around the world face significant challenges in this complex environment. The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic and structural policy actions and the role of well-functioning institutions in boosting investment and long-term growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Commodity-exporting EMDEs face unique challenges, requiring a properly designed fiscal framework and strong institutional environment to navigate the volatility of commodity markets. The report also calls for strengthened international cooperation to provide debt relief, promote trade integration, address climate change, and tackle food insecurity. It highlights the need for central banks to maintain anchored inflation expectations and resilient financial systems. Additionally, the report emphasizes the importance of implementing structural reforms to accelerate investment, improve productivity growth, and reduce gender gaps in labor markets. Regionally, the report expects improvements in growth in most EMDE regions, with the Middle East and North Africa benefiting from increased oil production and Sub-Saharan Africa recovering from recent weakness. Lastly, the report explores the concept of investment accelerations and their positive impact on economic growth and development goals in EMDEs. It emphasizes the role of policy shifts, macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and well-functioning institutions in sparking investment accelerations. The report concludes with a focus on fiscal policy in commodity-exporting EMDEs, pointing out that fiscal policy in these economies has been more procyclical and volatile compared to other EMDEs. The adoption of certain structural policies and the establishment of stable and effective fiscal institutions can help reduce fiscal procyclicality and volatility and contribute to GDP per capita growth.