WTO – Global Trade Outlook, 2024

According to the World Trade Organization, global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 after a decline in 2023. Import demand was weak in most regions in 2023, except in the Middle East and the CIS region where imports surged. Despite a slowdown in real GDP growth in 2023, it is expected to stabilize at around 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. The decline in the US dollar value of world merchandise trade in 2023 was offset by a strong increase in commercial services trade. World trade has shown resilience in recent years despite economic shocks, with merchandise trade volume up 6.3% by the end of 2023 compared to 2019. However, risks to the forecast include geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and rising protectionism, which could undermine the recovery of trade in 2024 and 2025. Inflation is expected to gradually decrease in the coming years, which will boost real incomes in advanced economies and lead to an increase in demand for manufactured goods.