MetLife – U.S. Housing Chartbook, Sep 2025

The main theme of the report concerns the state of the housing market in the United States.

Key findings include limited housing supply in the Midwest and Northeast, while the Sun Belt sees inventory growth. The 'lock-in' effect from low mortgage rates in 2020–2021 limits mobility and is expected to continue impacting home sales through 2027. A -1.5% decline in home prices is forecasted for 2025, followed by a +0.5% increase in 2026. Price declines are expected to focus on the South and California, with the sharpest drop in Florida. Cautious builder sentiment leads to reduced housing starts. The reduction in new supply and favorable demographic trends in the Southern U.S. are expected to support stronger price growth in 2027 and beyond. Despite short-term price declines, strong consumer fundamentals, elevated rates, and limited credit availability create favorable conditions for housing finance.