UBS – Global Real Estate Bubble Index, 2024

The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index for 2024 shows a reshuffling of risks in the real estate market. Imbalances have decreased in Europe, remained stable in Asia-Pacific, and increased in the US, with Miami topping the bubble risk ranking. Dubai has seen the highest risk increase since mid-2023. Housing shortage is an issue, with building permits declining in many cities and real rents increasing by over 5% on average in the last two years. Cities with high imbalances have seen real house prices drop by 20% since mid-2021, while other cities had a much smaller correction. Financing costs are becoming more attractive, leading to a bottoming out of housing demand and potential price acceleration. Although the overall bubble risk has slightly decreased for the second year in a row, some cities like Miami, Tokyo, Zurich, Los Angeles, Toronto, and Geneva still face high bubble risk. Cities like San Francisco, New York, London, Paris, Stockholm, and Milan are in a low-risk category. Strong price corrections have occurred in cities with high bubble risks, while cities like Vancouver, Toronto, and Amsterdam have seen significant price declines. Despite muted house price growth overall, some cities like Dubai and Miami continue to see surging home prices.