ING - Car Market Outlook 2023

According to ING's Car Market Outlook 2023, global car sales are expected to rise by around 4% in 2023, despite a downbeat outlook for the global economy. This is due to more consistent production volumes, delayed demand from accumulated order books, and positive growth expectations for China. The report also predicts growth to be in the 4-5% range in 2024. However, last year's global passenger car sales volumes were likely to have ended up around 10-15% below the pre-pandemic peak of 2018-2019, with FY22 passenger car sales ending up at approximately 80.5 million vehicles, down 1.1% YoY. In 2022, car sales trends were uneven across the top markets, with China ending the year in positive territory, helped by government tax incentives. Meanwhile, the US market fared the worst year-on-year, with sales numbers likely ending up in the sub-14 million territory, implying a decline of 7-8% over 2022. The report expects modest single-digit growth of 3-5% across the three largest passenger car markets, including China, the US, and Europe in 2023, with China's demand supported by the removal of zero-Covid policies while sales in the US and Europe should reflect the accumulated delayed demand and order books as production volumes improve with the semiconductor supply bottlenecks finally clearing up and delivery times gradually improving.