OIES – Rising New Energy Vehicle Sales in China: Falling Gasoline Demand, Rising Uncertainty

The main theme of the report is the analysis of the impact of rising sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China on gasoline demand.

Key findings include the slowdown in gasoline demand growth in China in recent years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rise in electric vehicle sales, which for the first time in 2024 accounted for more than half of new passenger car sales. Debates about whether gasoline demand has peaked and whether it will continue to decline. Forecasts suggest that by 2030, gasoline demand could fall to 3.0 million barrels per day from 3.6 million barrels per day in 2024, but there are significant uncertainties.