Oliver Wyman – Global Fleet & MRO Market, 2024-2034

The global commercial aircraft fleet is set to experience moderate growth between 2024 and 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 2.5% to reach over 36,400 aircraft. Despite recovery from the impact of COVID-19, growth will be slower than predicted before the pandemic. The MRO market is also expected to see record spending, reaching $124 billion by 2034. China is projected to become the second-largest fleet globally by 2034, surpassing Western Europe. North America will maintain the largest fleet, with India and Eastern Europe experiencing significant growth. However, Russia's fleet will contract due to trade sanctions. Airframe manufacturers Airbus and Boeing are facing challenges in meeting demand, while China's COMAC may enter the market with new aircraft. The industry faces a shortage of skilled labor and the need to modernize production processes. Next-generation engines are entering the market, but issues like delays and reliability problems are affecting their performance, impacting engine MRO capacity. These challenges could hinder the industry's ability to meet increasing demand for air travel.