S&P Global – Transportation Industry Credit Outlook, 2025

Geopolitical tensions have worsened in recent years, with conflicts in Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East disrupting supply chains. Additionally, labor costs have risen due to tight labor markets and wage agreements. Container shipping freight rates have surged, driven by attacks on commercial ships and robust trade volumes. Looking ahead to 2025, assumptions include sturdy consumer spending, high oil prices, and sluggish aircraft deliveries due to delays and engine issues. However, there are risks to this baseline, such as further geopolitical tensions, the potential impact of a second Trump term on trade routes, and softening airfares that could affect airline earnings. Overall, the transportation industry faces uncertainties and challenges as it navigates the evolving global landscape.