CIPD – Labour Market Outlook Winter, 2025/26

The report provides an early indication of future changes in the labour market focusing on recruitment, redundancy, and pay intentions.

It is based on a representative survey of more than 2,000 employers. The labour market remains difficult for jobseekers but is becoming easier for employers to navigate. Employer hiring intentions remain at an unparalleled low outside of the pandemic. Rising employment costs, especially the National Insurance rise in 2025, are a significant cost pressure affecting business confidence. In the public sector, the net employment balance has fallen indicating more expected staff reductions, with restrictive recruitment practices and recruitment freezes. The number of entrants to the civil service decreased by more than 30% from March 2024 to March 2025.