Invesco – Global Policy Outlook, Nov 2023

Invesco's Global Policy Outlook for November 2023 emphasizes the significant impact of events in 2023 on the outlook for the year ahead.

The war in Ukraine, inflation, and global economic and political uncertainty are expected to shape the geopolitical and economic landscape in 2024. Key questions for 2024 include the US's role in the Israel-Hamas conflict, the impact of a slowing economy on elections in the US and UK, the US's commitment to Ukraine, and the future of US-China relations. While it is impossible to provide definitive answers at this point, there are clues and data pointing to the direction of these issues, and Invesco will continue to update their analysis. The report also explores potential political changes in multiple regions, fiscal and geopolitical outlooks, and policy and regulatory developments in AI, fund liquidity, and ESG. Regarding the political outlook, there is optimism and concern for both parties in the upcoming 2024 elections, with Senate Republicans feeling positive about their candidates and House Republicans discussing the possibility of gaining control of the Senate. In terms of the fiscal outlook, a continuing resolution has been agreed upon to keep the government running, but shutdowns are possible in early 2024. Additionally, the Biden administration has requested emergency aid for Israel and Ukraine, as well as funds for the southern US border and other humanitarian needs. A bipartisan group of senators is working on the legislative language for this aid package.