IEF – Comparative analysis, May 2024

The oil market has seen a drop in prices due to economic concerns and fund managers selling off petroleum derivatives. Global economic growth worries, inflation, and steady interest rates by the US Fed are contributing to the market's unease. Refining margins for diesel have decreased significantly, while positive signals for oil demand include the IMF's global GDP forecast revision and China's increasing oil imports. OPEC projects higher oil demand compared to IEA and EIA. OPEC+ is withholding oil supply from the market, with analysts expecting production cuts to continue into the second half of the year. EIA and OPEC have made significant updates to their reports for increased clarity, with OPEC ceasing to publish supply forecasts for non-OPEC members. This comparative analysis takes into account these changes for a comprehensive understanding of the oil market dynamics.