Oxford – Russian Oil Refining in the Crosshairs

In the first quarter of 2024, Ukraine escalated drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, targeting refineries and storage sites over 1,000km away from the border. These attacks disrupted an estimated 300 kb/d of crude processing capacity, with disruptions increasing to 450 kb/d in March. The IEA suggests that up to 600 kb/d of processing could have been lost in the first quarter due to the attacks, but this is not consistent with Russia's supply data. Despite the attacks, Russian refinery runs only decreased slightly year-on-year to 5.2 mb/d in March, while crude production and exports remained relatively stable. Product exports, however, declined in March compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The impact of the drone attacks on Russian oil refining capacity and the broader energy sector will be examined further in this Energy Comment.