WPIC – Platinum Essentials, Apr 2024

Platinum's biggest opportunity in the hydrogen economy is in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), especially heavy-duty vehicles. WPIC predicts that by 2030, hydrogen end-uses will make up 11% of total annual platinum demand, with fuel cells accounting for over 60% of this demand. While initial adoption of FCEVs has been slow, the decreasing cost of hydrogen production is expected to make FCEVs more cost competitive with diesel by 2030. Government support in the form of subsidies and regulations has been lacking but is now increasing, leading to a refreshed analysis of the HD-FCEV market. Factors supporting the growth of HD-FCEV markets include increasing fuel cell production capacity, subsidies lowering upfront costs, and advancements in electrolysis technology reducing the cost of hydrogen production. WPIC predicts that HD-FCEV market share will reach 5% by 2030, particularly in China and Europe, driving incremental platinum demand and reducing above-ground inventories, resulting in higher prices. Market deficits are forecasted from 2023 to at least 2028, with an average of 430 koz deficits between 2025 and 2028, supporting the investment case for platinum.