McKinsey – CIB in an Era of Volatility, AI, and Nonbank Challengers

This report analyzes the corporate and investment banking (CIB) sector facing challenges and opportunities amid geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility, the rise of nonbank challengers, and increasing adoption of AI.

It highlights strong recent performance with revenues growing at a CAGR of 5.7% from 2000 to 2024 and ROE exceeding 13%. The report identifies three major disruptive trends: macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, competition from attacker firms, and technological changes driven by agentic AI and digital assets. A four-part playbook is proposed focusing on strategic agility, scenario planning, footprint rethinking, and integrating geopolitical implications into planning and resource allocation.